Avoided Emissions

Permanently storing what would have been a CO2 emission in order to avoid an increase in atmospheric CO2. Note that this is distinct from CDR because the source of CO2 is a potential emission rather than the atmosphere. The climate benefit of such an intervention depends on the counterfactual scenario – what would have happened without our action? – which can only be estimated, not observed. If a project claims to avoid emissions that weren’t going to happen anyway, and other emissions are allowed to continue in exchange, then an avoided emission project can do more damage to the climate than doing nothing at all.

source: J Wilcox, B Kolosz, & J Freeman (2021) CDR Primer; Concepts